Positioning
COT Score
PositionAlpha’s −100 to +100 summary of commercial, non-commercial, and small-trader positioning changes.
What it is
The COT Score is a proprietary metric that ranges from -100 to +100, where positive scores indicate bullish positioning and negative scores indicate bearish positioning. It's calculated by analyzing positioning changes across commercial traders (50% weight), non-commercial traders (30% weight), and small traders (20% weight).
Why it matters
The COT Score provides a single number that summarizes complex positioning data, making it easier to quickly assess market sentiment. Scores above +25 are considered bullish, while scores below -25 are bearish. Extreme scores (above +60 or below -60) can sometimes signal potential reversals.
How traders use it
Use the COT Score as one input in your analysis. A bullish score (+25 to +59) suggests favorable positioning, while extreme scores (+60 or higher) might indicate crowded positioning. Always combine with price action and other indicators.
Example
A COT Score of +45 for gold suggests bullish positioning, with commercials and speculators both positioned long. A score of +75 might indicate extreme bullish positioning, which could be a contrarian warning.
Deeper context
Weights emphasize commercials because producers and consumers often have fundamental knowledge of physical markets, while still giving large specs room to confirm trend participation. Small traders receive the lightest weight and often act as a soft contrarian input. The score is not a forecast of next week’s price; it is a compressed view of how positioning evolved. When the score is extreme and seasonality agrees, PositionAlpha may feature the asset in Today’s Focus — still a research cue, not a trade ticket. Read the as-of date on the COT panel so you know which CFTC week you are seeing.
Common mistakes
Assuming +60 means “buy now”; ignoring that weights are fixed methodology; comparing scores across assets without remembering each market has its own volatility of positioning.
Related terms
COT, Commercial Traders, Non-Commercial Traders, Contrarian Indicator, How PositionAlpha Scores Work